Previous articles have shown how a majority of the time bad beats are not bad beats, today's article will show you how to determine your pot odds, so you can make better decisions. Pro players determine this information very quickly, if after reading this you are still struggling, try the 30 day free trial for the magic hold em calculator, you will see a banner on the right.
Calculating Odds To determine the odds against improving your hand on the next card, compare the total number of cards that will not help you to the number of cards or "outs" that will. For example, you hold 7♥ 6♥ with a flop of A♣ T♥ 5♥. On the flop there are 47 unseen cards. Out of these 47, there are nine hearts remaining that will improve your hand to a flush and 38 cards that won’t; therefore, the odds against improving to a flush are 4.2 to 1 (38/9). An open-ended straight draw has eight outs, which is 4.9 to 1 against improving (39/8). An inside straight draw, a.k.a. gut-shot draw, has four outs, which is 10.75 to 1 (43/4). If you don’t improve on the turn and want to know the odds that the river can will improve your hand, the odds will improve just slightly as one more care has been seen. There are only 46 unseen cards on the turn; therefore, a flush draw is now 4.1 to 1 (37/9), which is just slightly better than the 4.2 to 1 odds you had when drawing on the flop.
To determine the probability of improving on the next card, simply divide your outs by the total number of cards left in the deck. For example, the probability of improving to a flush on the next card is 19% (9/47). You will improve to an open ended straight 17% of the time (8/47), and a gut-shot straight 8.5% of the time (4/47). I prefer to know the odds are 11 to 1 rather than the probability is 8.5%, because it is easier to compare to the pot odds you are receiving. Sometimes on the flop, you want to know the probability that either the turn or the river card will improve your hand with two cards to come. These calculations are slightly more complicated. The best way is to multiply the probability of missing on the turn by the probability of missing on the river. For example, for a flush draw you would multiply 38/47 by 37/46, which equals 1406/2162 or .6503; therefore, 65% of the time you will not improve and 35% of the lime you will. [To convert this to odds, invert the percentage and subtract 1 to get 1/.35 -1 = 1.9 to 1 against improving. This section looked briefly at how to calculate simple odds and probabilities; however, calculating odds in your head during a poker game can be quite cumbersome. In reality, all you need to do is memorize the following chart.
To determine the probability of improving on the next card, simply divide your outs by the total number of cards left in the deck. For example, the probability of improving to a flush on the next card is 19% (9/47). You will improve to an open ended straight 17% of the time (8/47), and a gut-shot straight 8.5% of the time (4/47). I prefer to know the odds are 11 to 1 rather than the probability is 8.5%, because it is easier to compare to the pot odds you are receiving. Sometimes on the flop, you want to know the probability that either the turn or the river card will improve your hand with two cards to come. These calculations are slightly more complicated. The best way is to multiply the probability of missing on the turn by the probability of missing on the river. For example, for a flush draw you would multiply 38/47 by 37/46, which equals 1406/2162 or .6503; therefore, 65% of the time you will not improve and 35% of the lime you will. [To convert this to odds, invert the percentage and subtract 1 to get 1/.35 -1 = 1.9 to 1 against improving. This section looked briefly at how to calculate simple odds and probabilities; however, calculating odds in your head during a poker game can be quite cumbersome. In reality, all you need to do is memorize the following chart.
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